After a long sustained period of uncertainty with world markets in a poor state we are now seeing acceleration in growth confounding predictions that a world wide recession would follow the UK’s Brexit vote.
We are seeing significant momentum and growth over the last few weeks in fact quite the opposite of the European predictions.
“The risk of a global recession is diminishing daily like a virus being treated with strong economic antibiotics.”
Within Europe Italy, France and other Eurozone countries have used the Brexit to end their own austerity to help pump their own economies. In Japan they are launching a huge financial package to fuel their economy while in the US the Fed is performing as a world central bank adding confidence and monetary value to world markets. The risk of a global recession is diminishing daily like a virus being treated with strong economic antibiotics.
In China a recent survey has revealed that the growth in services is accelerating and the construction sector is booming again.
Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research is predicting an economic world recovery for the next eighteen months. “We are seeing trend growth of money at around 4pc to 5pc in the industrial countries with low inflation. This is what Milton Friedman used to dream about. Quantitative easing worked in the US and now it is working in Europe too.”
So what does this mean for UK businesses?
It means that over the next 12-18 months the World economy is looking good and that does have a positive effect on UK business of course. New trade deal discussions are available, exporting goods for small businesses will be an exciting space for international trade deals. Currencies will stay strong and the world’s biggest countries are seeing construction back to a healthy state. It may be a short term 1-2 year scenario however and we should all be cautious but the immediate future is ultimately positive.